Egypt and The Baradei …..(2)

If Dr. Baradei indulges in the presidency race without preparations, he shall not have any vote. The reality is that 80 percent of the voters are passive voters. At least 50% of t hose passive voters might not have heard about the achievements of Dr. Baradei and if it happens that they know, they do not care about his international achievements.

The only way that Dr. Baradei may be able to attract the passive voters is through a declared detailed vision that can touches on the livelihood of those silent protesters.

Dr. Baradei has been subject to character assassination in the state media, which is, to the majority of the Egyptians in peri-urban and rural population is the government voice and it is subconsciously obeyed. The state media contents steams from excessive researches about the nature of the belief system of the Egyptians. They are the same population that complain vehemently about every aspect of governance yet they, in hypnotized like manner, vote for the ruling party, either willingly or unwillingly through other means.

Such belief system is fed continuously through proverbs, test balloons and rumors that touch on their routed fear of risk. A typical Egyptian is not a risk taker, thus by nature is the enemy of change. Such attitude results from poverty and deprivation of choices. Another reason being is geo-political nature of Egypt itself, and the socio-economic relation between the government with its brutality from one side and the interest of the individual in avoiding risks.

The ruler of Egypt has to be autocratic, even unwillingly; he is forced to such situation by the workings of the oldest bureaucratic machinery known to mankind. Most of the speeches of the Egyptian rulers are empty of any sign of respect to the voters’ opinion, or that Egyptian leaders are elected to oversee the people’s interest. That shall be a major challenge to Dr. Baradei success.

Another aspect that Dr. Baradei has to face is the brutal and selfish capitalism that exploded in Egypt in the past ten years. Such Capitalists are ready to invest in the sustainability of the current political system at any cost to maintain their monopoly and protect their interests.

Dr. Baradei has been outside the loop of such groups and has been tagged now as a threat to the system, so financing his campaign is confronted with a waves of counter investments and he shall not have except the good will of a bunch of middle class thinkers, that have hardly made a difference in the political landscape of Egypt in the past.

Dr. Baradei has won elections in international institutions through lobbying limited identified interest groups. He has worked through limited campaigns with limited budgets, how would he finance a campaign to 80 million interest groups with high illiteracy rate. That for sure is a challenge that need to budgeted and planned for.

Another aspect is that Dr. Baradei is a technocrat, he is used to office and interest groups politics through a defined set of rules that can be bent but not broken, how would he manage his campaign through presidency’s election landscape in Egypt, where every law could be, if not already, broken.

The wondering mind of

NED

Egypt and the Baradei

Having not visited Egypt for sometime  makes it difficult to be objective in criticizing the constitution and the workings of the politics. However, looking at the economic indices we cannot deny that there is economic progress and development.
Having said that, it is necessary to ask: Is that the optimum economic progress that the country could have attained? With no doubt the answer is no. relying on indices in assessing the progress of a country can be deceptive and cannot reflect the actual situation of the workings of the politics and the markets in the country.
The level of poverty in the country have increased with no doubt, yet the GDP per capita increased resulting in increased disparity in income between the rich and the poor (Gini Coefficient), not that the number of the rich have increased. The major problem the poor are having in Egypt is the exclusion from political participation and misrepresentation. In my opinion not only the poor are excluded from political participation, but also the youth and the eroded middle class. Of course, we are not talking here about the elites of the youth, which the national party present and use whenever change is demanded; we are talking about the ordinary youth and their energy that rests idle in the midst of a changing world that calls on every muscle to join the struggle against the economic dominance of China and the developed world.
The workings of the politics have lead to segregation of the community based on connections, not racial and tribal factors, but based on creation of islands of interests, attached to the ruling party, that serves as a monopoly. Such monopoly kills every talent and will that seek participation and growth. The tools for such social apartheid are numerous, from a controlled state media that serves like professional character assassin, to a brutal police force that can be deployed under any cause to suppress the demanding voices when need arises.
Another question needs to be answered, who opposes the change, in spite of the numerous people calling for it? With no doubt those  are the beneficiaries of such statuesque. They are too lazy to create new connections in a new system and not sure if the new system will condone the economic atrocities that they have committed.
It is not normal that the sustainability of an economic system in a country of 80 millions to be tied to the presence of one person even if it is the president, he is not immortal. The negative fluctuation of the money and stocks markets when roomers erupts about his health, shows with no doubt that monopoly and autocracy is prevailing in such system and it would be risky for any foreign or even local investor to invest trasparently in such country.
In the end, it is necessary to mention that the voices calling on Mr. Baradei to partake in the Egyptian election for presidency are sentimental and emotional. Mr. Baradei has not indicated what he can do to take over such role, and what would be his vision for the country if he becomes the president. It seems that those voices are so desperate for change and Mr. Baradei ask them to pave the way for him instead of working his way through.

The wondering mind of

NED.