Egypt and The Baradei …..(2)

If Dr. Baradei indulges in the presidency race without preparations, he shall not have any vote. The reality is that 80 percent of the voters are passive voters. At least 50% of t hose passive voters might not have heard about the achievements of Dr. Baradei and if it happens that they know, they do not care about his international achievements.

The only way that Dr. Baradei may be able to attract the passive voters is through a declared detailed vision that can touches on the livelihood of those silent protesters.

Dr. Baradei has been subject to character assassination in the state media, which is, to the majority of the Egyptians in peri-urban and rural population is the government voice and it is subconsciously obeyed. The state media contents steams from excessive researches about the nature of the belief system of the Egyptians. They are the same population that complain vehemently about every aspect of governance yet they, in hypnotized like manner, vote for the ruling party, either willingly or unwillingly through other means.

Such belief system is fed continuously through proverbs, test balloons and rumors that touch on their routed fear of risk. A typical Egyptian is not a risk taker, thus by nature is the enemy of change. Such attitude results from poverty and deprivation of choices. Another reason being is geo-political nature of Egypt itself, and the socio-economic relation between the government with its brutality from one side and the interest of the individual in avoiding risks.

The ruler of Egypt has to be autocratic, even unwillingly; he is forced to such situation by the workings of the oldest bureaucratic machinery known to mankind. Most of the speeches of the Egyptian rulers are empty of any sign of respect to the voters’ opinion, or that Egyptian leaders are elected to oversee the people’s interest. That shall be a major challenge to Dr. Baradei success.

Another aspect that Dr. Baradei has to face is the brutal and selfish capitalism that exploded in Egypt in the past ten years. Such Capitalists are ready to invest in the sustainability of the current political system at any cost to maintain their monopoly and protect their interests.

Dr. Baradei has been outside the loop of such groups and has been tagged now as a threat to the system, so financing his campaign is confronted with a waves of counter investments and he shall not have except the good will of a bunch of middle class thinkers, that have hardly made a difference in the political landscape of Egypt in the past.

Dr. Baradei has won elections in international institutions through lobbying limited identified interest groups. He has worked through limited campaigns with limited budgets, how would he finance a campaign to 80 million interest groups with high illiteracy rate. That for sure is a challenge that need to budgeted and planned for.

Another aspect is that Dr. Baradei is a technocrat, he is used to office and interest groups politics through a defined set of rules that can be bent but not broken, how would he manage his campaign through presidency’s election landscape in Egypt, where every law could be, if not already, broken.

The wondering mind of

NED

Egypt and the Baradei

Having not visited Egypt for sometime  makes it difficult to be objective in criticizing the constitution and the workings of the politics. However, looking at the economic indices we cannot deny that there is economic progress and development.
Having said that, it is necessary to ask: Is that the optimum economic progress that the country could have attained? With no doubt the answer is no. relying on indices in assessing the progress of a country can be deceptive and cannot reflect the actual situation of the workings of the politics and the markets in the country.
The level of poverty in the country have increased with no doubt, yet the GDP per capita increased resulting in increased disparity in income between the rich and the poor (Gini Coefficient), not that the number of the rich have increased. The major problem the poor are having in Egypt is the exclusion from political participation and misrepresentation. In my opinion not only the poor are excluded from political participation, but also the youth and the eroded middle class. Of course, we are not talking here about the elites of the youth, which the national party present and use whenever change is demanded; we are talking about the ordinary youth and their energy that rests idle in the midst of a changing world that calls on every muscle to join the struggle against the economic dominance of China and the developed world.
The workings of the politics have lead to segregation of the community based on connections, not racial and tribal factors, but based on creation of islands of interests, attached to the ruling party, that serves as a monopoly. Such monopoly kills every talent and will that seek participation and growth. The tools for such social apartheid are numerous, from a controlled state media that serves like professional character assassin, to a brutal police force that can be deployed under any cause to suppress the demanding voices when need arises.
Another question needs to be answered, who opposes the change, in spite of the numerous people calling for it? With no doubt those  are the beneficiaries of such statuesque. They are too lazy to create new connections in a new system and not sure if the new system will condone the economic atrocities that they have committed.
It is not normal that the sustainability of an economic system in a country of 80 millions to be tied to the presence of one person even if it is the president, he is not immortal. The negative fluctuation of the money and stocks markets when roomers erupts about his health, shows with no doubt that monopoly and autocracy is prevailing in such system and it would be risky for any foreign or even local investor to invest trasparently in such country.
In the end, it is necessary to mention that the voices calling on Mr. Baradei to partake in the Egyptian election for presidency are sentimental and emotional. Mr. Baradei has not indicated what he can do to take over such role, and what would be his vision for the country if he becomes the president. It seems that those voices are so desperate for change and Mr. Baradei ask them to pave the way for him instead of working his way through.

The wondering mind of

NED.

SOUTH AFRICANS UNDER SIEGE…

On a daily basis, The news media is reporting the security mishaps and turmoil in the country, however the reality exceeds by far the reports… a lot of law abiding neighborhoods are under complete siege, where the occupants are living under restricted movement conditions because of their fear for their lives and property from the armed robbers that are rampant now in the country. The economic crunch, jobs losses and the unrolled migration are among several reasons of the increased number of crimes in South Africa.

In Addition, It is necessary to mention that the aforementioned are not the only reasons of the increased rate of crimes and the state of fear that the law abiding citizens are facing. The enabling legal environment is also one of the major contributors to the crisis. South African law appears to be more concerned with the criminal’s welfare rather than the welfare of the law abiding citizens. The living conditions inside the penitentiary complexes are may be exceeding the living conditions in some of the townships; where basic services are guaranteed, three daily good meals and welfare programs. Coupled with abolishing of death sentence, life inside prison for most of desperate touts is worthy more than his life outside, where the high unemployment rate and lack of basic service denied him a state of productivity.

Having said that the law proceedings needs to be reconsidered; where a criminal can be released on bails, repeatedly, pending trial on his first crime in a highly congested courts. It is necessary to mention that Justice delayed is justice denied .in addition this frustrates the under capacitated members of the police force, whom may simply find no pride in their efforts to curb crime. In some cases the criminal have a guaranteed three meals, which than the families of some of the police officer may lack, while same officer can lose his life defending the community.

Another ridiculous case is the application of the law itself, where, for example, one of my friends told me that they caught a thief with his stolen goods on his street, and in the trial the thief claimed that the owner is the one who dashed him the goods and he did not steel it, thus he was vacated!!!! Honesty this means that the testimony of the thief is more valid than the law abiding citizens.

South Africa is a beautiful country where access to such beauty and ability to invest is prohibited by the state of lawlessness. A lot of communities are taking protection or law in their hands, and when they do that they become the accused rather than the victims.

A lot of investments and growth can be flowing in South Africa if the government is able to:

1. Change the criminal law.
2. Enhance the living conditions for the police by:
   1. Provide houses specifically for police officers at a subsidized rate.
   2. Provide medical hospitals exclusive for the police and their family with minimal cost or free of charge.
   3. Have a comparative to the welfare programs to the families of the police at least like those of the prisoners. (Especially on these social aspects..for info on subject click “Project launched in SA to care for children, mothers in jail“)
   4. Abolish laws that concentrating wealth into the hands of the elites who acts like middle men and direct such spoils to the townships.
   5. Put incentive programs to those investors who build industries near or close to the townships.
   6. Relax the labor laws that are prohibitive, in some cases, to employment and allow the employment to be subject to the laws of the markets. That will save billions of Rands that spent annually on trivial labor disputes that stems mainly from reluctance of self-improvement.
   7. Direct all above savings and major portion of savings to subsidies education , especially tertiary ones, that without it the community shall be always under threat of humiliation and destitute.

It is necessary to know that communities and countries grow and develop when they are taught how to fish and not be given free fish, or even subsidized ones.

NED

THE ENEMIES OF MY FRIENDS ARE MY ENEMIES….EVEN IF …..

During my recent visit to Middle East I followed three axes of events

Axes 1:

1. George Mitchell visit to Middle East.
2. Netanyahu announces rejection of the peace strategy based on the co-existence and creating of 2 states.

Axes 2:

1. Morocco cuts it diplomatic ties with Iran
2. Egypt accuses Hezbollah, Iran, Syria, Qatar and of course above all the Muslim Brotherhood, of planning attacks on Egypt

Axes 3:

1. Iran convicts an American Spy in court.

Were all the above a welcoming party for George Mitchell …..

Egypt claims reminds me of those of the Bush administration in 2002 when they accused The Qaeda of Collaboration with Sadam Hussein to attack American interests; yet I recall that Cairo vexed such allegations based on the conflict in ideology between Hussein and the Qaeda. If that was the case then, how can the Muslim Brotherhood (Sunni) co-operate with Hezbollah (Shiite), and Qatar (Sunnis) cooperate with Iran (Shiites).

This is a very wide allegation and I believe that Egypt has lined up all America’s  opposition on one tray during the welcoming party of Senator Mitchell, for him to select; while withering the Muslim Brotherhood comfortably.

This media portion of the covert operation is also to hide the failure of the strategic choice of the Arabs in its negotiation with Israel. In addition, Hezbollah operative held by Cairo shall be part of the exchange deal to the recently American convicted spy in Iran….

I think Cairo is trying to score its first favor with Obama’s administration, as well as gaining leverage and staying in the game while Tehran-Washington are just commencing their first talks and recognitions.

Africa Re-colonised….

Along the years of my traveling in Africa I was always observant to demographic variations among air travelers and passengers, from empty seats, to Franco-phone African talking about “L’Afrique”, to the Europeans who think they shall get the elephants to mount them, to Americans who just came out of World Bank pockets as the solution, to the missionaries talking about the despair, yet collect more donations from the needy, to the Chinese who do not speak anyone except the Chinese!!!!. The problem this time, they were almost 35% of the passengers on the flight.

I always judge people with their belief system, and none I awe more than those who adopt the following proverbs saying:

• If you are patient enough you shall see the corps of your enemy floating down the river.
• Don’t give me a fish, but teach me how to fish a fish.

I believe that the above two proverbs are the inherent rules in the Chinese belief system and the main strategies that they use to conquer the world. China has adopted same strategy against USA and now it is watching the American Corp struggling to survive down the financial turbulent and turbid river.

The Chinese danger is that they are looking at “the bottom of the pyramid”, and they are uprooting the grass-roots’ opportunities in Africa. Those who have some small trading jobs here and there…..I am not saying the Chinese are wrong in their strategy to invade and colonies Africa peacefully. It the solution to their problems, where a low productivity, corruption coupled with low population density. It seems African to be the solution to all Chinese current social and demographic problems; but it seems that the African countries their and governments have lost contact with and vision of their grass-roots and they cannot hear anymore their hunger roaring

The reader may agree that those governments need the blessing of the new up coming master, but the problem that this master is not coming with new technology or development techniques, the Chinese are coming with ethnic replacement… they are creating closed communities competing with small traders, and they are financially supported by the their government, through subsidiaries schemes and incentives,

How can the poor and the helpless grass-root Africans compete with that?….at least when they used to import from china and sell in their mother land and continent, they had a job then, but now with the demographic replacement of the Africans by Chinese is dangerous, especially when they are up-rooting the citizens from their jobs, then they will create a monopoly of production, supply and afterwards ….politics

Wake up Africa and “don’t inhale”…

The Vehicle Roles and the Dogs Bark

I have been trying to visualise the political landscape in South Africa without the presence of ANC, and I came up with a shocking discovery….The other parties (DA and COPE) would have nothing to provide that country, as there will be nothing to moan about, instead of working.

The South African Parties (COPE AND DA) are wasting huge amount of money and efforts on the war on ANC and Zuma rather than providing any tangible or trustworthy competition and alternatives….they are politically bankrupt to the extent they can only launch hatred campaigns.

I was observing the South African media for past 2 days with astoundment to the level of legal and constitutional ignorance of most of the presenters and most of their guests, where everyone says “but Zuma should answer to those charges”….since when the onus is on the accused to prove, it is the prosecutor that has to prove beyond reasonable doubt (in criminal cases) and by balance of possibilities in civil case…..I repeat; if it is criminal charges it has to be proven beyond reasonable doubt….where is this in the Zuma case?….more so the prosecutor is saying I cannot win because I cannot achieve conviction with ” beyond reasonable doubt”; yet everyone goes to Zuma to ask him to still defend himself…..

Also I support the fact that the local media is biased against Zuma, any blind person can see it where some channels are just pouring hatred…..Please note that it is an election year and Parties have to draw up better plans to convince the voters they are the best and can do for the masses better than Zuma…..

When a party or person is politically bankrupt, it or he can do nothing except barking at successful passers….

Wake up COPE and DA, I am sure you can do better than that;l otherwise appear busy….

NED

WILL THE ARABS READ THIS???

In 1969 when the Mr. Dayan, the ex-Chief of Staff and Defense Minister of the Israeli “Defense” Forces was interviewed regarding their combat strategy against the Arabs, including “Egypt” then, he went onto the details of the strategy specifying the axes of the envisaged attack, to the extent that the interviewer asked him out of concern: “wouldn’t the Arabs create a counter-strategy after reading about your strategy details here” then the General answered him simply “Arabs do not read”!!!!

After 40 years I was faced with the same question while going through the March version of the French DSI (Défense & Sécurité Internationale Magazine) No. 46 when I saw that not only the Arabs do not read, but apparently they also do not think.

That issue of DSI reported that the Emirate Army is on full modernization to face that of the Iranian!!!!!…..I could not hold myself laughing out this black comedy that is being played in the Gulf….to readers who does not know the nature of people in that area, the typical national Arab is a reflection of his economy, where they spend most their useful time in front of the TV either playing, Wii, Atari or virtual games.

They can not and would not fight a war of any kind, A proof of which the Gulf War I, when most the Kuwaiti flee their country instead of enrolling to fight. Historically and since 1950s the only war that the gulf area got involved is possibly was the unification of the SAUDI ARABIA, and it was fought over camels and horses and won by different breed of men that are not available in that area now….

Going back to that ugly analysis of the modern war history in that area and also the sales initiative of Mr. Sarkosi relying on Mr Bush Jr. recklessness (Please my check previous article) the Arabs went and bought toys that they do not even have the manpower to use nor even the ability to use except in simulations….

The Emirates useful male Population is 2,768,030* including immigrants between the age of 15 to 65, assuming a normal distribution (statistically, assume that 40 percent of which is between 20 and 30 years of age, and assuming population of immigrants is about 35% we shall get that total population that may defend Emirate is about 720,000 most of which are rich and represent a typical strain of cautious investor, where they prefer to buy the service than DIY (Do It Yourself). This concludes that about 400,000 people can defend Emirates at a best case scenario. Now looking at Iran, Iran has useful male population of 24,501,544* almost 10 times that of Emirates, eager and more experienced in war since 1980 till its involvement in Lebanon War III 2006 at least by strategy and systems.

Secondly, in the Gulf War II in IRAQ it is demonstrated that most important piece of equipment is the people or soldier’s belief, numbers people ready to defend and the courage factor of the war that no machine can break, same rule application is demonstrated currently in Afghanistan which USA tried recently to negotiate for alliance and when failed Mr. Obama promised them yesterday the wrath and hell.

Thirdly, when did Iran become a threat to the Arabs?, it has never attacked the Arabs first and  secondly, they are of the same religion.  During the Iraqi war, motivated by Mr. Chiney, Mr. Rumsfiled and of course the Father of all contemporary Gulf wars, the famous Mr. George H. W. Bush; to drain the Iran’s and Iraq’s resources and test new strain of chemical weapons, among other targets; it was Iraq that started.

Unless the Arabs are buying toys, stocking them for others to use, while they continue watching the war on TV, loosing their petro-money and resources on toys and not development; they are a race destined  to perish out of ignorance.

Funny enough when reviewing the Economist of March 21^st to 27^th 2009, the lead article is about how China sees the world, demonstrated by an elegant art work of the world’s map from China’s perspective and ….. to prove my point, neither the Arabs nor their peninsula are on that map!!!!.

The Wondering Mind of

NED

* Source :CIA- The-World-Factbook

NATION’S SELF –REDEMPTION

The atrocities of the Bush administration are enormous and the full extent of damage shall not be revealed immediately but for years to come…. Read Further

We cannot also accuse the Bush administration alone and absolve the American people including the current administration as Bush & Co. won election with the 50% plus one in a “democratic” process…..also we cannot absolve the American institutions including the media from diminishing and tarnishing the American image while they were following the “leader”….

We also cannot claim that USA’s liability ended when they elected angel’s face Mr. Obama, while forgetting what the world underwent and still suffering because of 50% of the American people….the Germans’ had and still are paying for the atrocities of Hitler, are the Americans better race than the Germans ?…..the Germans went into self-cleansing and to date they have no regular army, so why can’t the same happen to USA….When massive power is left uncontrolled in hands of a group of people, while diminishing or eliminating the possibility of punishment for miss-use; we are encouraging similar actions in the future then elect afterwards another angel face to clean up the mess….

I believe, like a lot of people, that we are not living in a jungle and that American War Machine has to be dissolved to avoid any future mishaps ……Alternatively bring all the members of the Bush administration to the International Criminal Court for criminal war fair and actions committed in the past 8 years…..but ultimately someone has to pay….otherwise why did the world picked to the German’s Hitler and forgot the American one….

THESE ARE THE HEADLINES…

Funny enough that the people in Arab’s peninsula and in the North Africa, and Palestine consider the Israeli / Palestinian conflict to be the core issue, while the world see it as a bullet among several headlines….the destiny of 300 million depressed and unproductive people is summerised in one bullet in a headline only..……they are equivalent in importance to “finding the mother of abounded baby” while in one missile strike 40 child and baby were and are killed….

This says that the media is not interested in showing the real gravity of massacre and the gravity of brutality the Israeli criminal war machine is doing…thus I believe that the mainstream media is culprit to the criminal apartheid regime of Israel….

I hope the Arabs can see how others are  observing them through the eyes of the  media…..

Some of the losers are still talking about peace and strategic choices while others are calling for truce while the blood, the despair, the destiny and  the future of the  people in Middle East is summarized in one headline….

Have fun Mr. Abbas, as well as your supporters…you are a pure sycophants…..

Just one thing I wanted to say….one of the MACs of  the fast food series has donated yesterday income to the Israeli War machine what did the 300m Arab people donate except depression and passiveness………..

the disgusted mind of,

Ned

A TALE OF TWO LADIES

Mrs. Bush and Ms Rice are trying to convince the world and the US how brilliant and advanced is Mr. Bush Jr. ….to the extent that we cannot understand his actions now but in generations to come and people of USA shall be so grateful…..what a paradox!!!!!

The Enigma Mr. Bush Jr. is leaving the white house and everything is in shambles and yet we shall not understand now, but in years to come…

Just sitting and throwing my shoulders to the back and think of the world, I cannot disagree on more in life than those statements of the Mrs(s)……

If the actions of Mr. Bush Jr. are so brilliant why does he need people to defend…acts and successes talk for themselves… To make it short and sweet just READ THIS—>….